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By: Keith Dobkowski, NFL News Writer
January 12, 2005
The Super Bowl champion is clearly coming from the AFC. What
team that will be is a whole different question. Can the New
England Patriots win its third championship in four years, or will
Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colt offense dissect the
weakened secondary of the Pats? Will the Pittsburgh Steelers be
able to ride the momentum of the leagues best record, or will the
New York Jets apply playoff pressure on the rookie quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger?
The AFC match-ups:
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
In a rematch of last year’s game, and for the third time in the past
year, the Colts head to New England. The Colts lost the previous
two games in much different manners. Last years playoffs saw Ty
Law control Peyton Manning and help the Pats pick Manning off 4
times. In the 17 games since, Manning has only thrown 11 picks.
And in the first game of this season, the Pats beat the Colts in
overtime. But before the breakdown, lets introduce the two
teams.
The Colts are led by repeat MVP Peyton Manning and his NFL
record 49 touchdown passes. Manning’s weapons include three
receivers, Marvin Harrison, Brandon Stokley, and Reggie Wayne,
that all gained at least 1,000 yards and caught 10 touchdowns.
And with Edgerrin James and his 1500 yards gained in the
backfield, the Colts have the best offense in football.
While the Colts defense is considered their weakness, the
defense causes lots of turnovers. They led the league in
takeaways and had the league leader in sacks. The Colts ability
to make the one big defensive play is ever so important. Look no
further than the victory over the Broncos as the Colts had three
sacks and a very timely interception that led to the Colts third
touchdown and essentially ended the game.
The Pats have been the most complete team in football over the
past four seasons. Coach Brian Belichick always has his players
prepared and has not lost a playoff game in three years. While
most believed that the salary cap ended the dynasty in football,
the Pats are just three victories short of a third Super Bowl title in
four years and the dynasty label.
On offense Tom Brady and newcomer Cory Dillon lead the Pats.
Dillon fills the one weakness from last year’s Super Bowl team, a
dominant rusher. Dillon was definitely dominant as he rushed for
over 1600 yards.
On defense the Pats are significantly weaker that last year.
Cornerbacks Ty Law and Tyrone Poole are both out forcing wide
receiver Troy Brown to line up in the nickel back position.
Furthermore defensive end Richard Seymour will be a game time
decision. With three starters missing from the defense that
stopped the Colts in last year’s playoffs and limited them in game
one this season, a tall order is necessary to stop the powerful
Colts offense.
The big difference this weekend is that in the two previous
meetings the Colts saw a Pats team with a healthy secondary.
Instead the Colts will enter the game licking their chops as Law,
the defensive key to the Pats victory over the Colts in last year’s
playoffs, has been placed on injured reserve. Furthermore,
starting cornerback Tyrone Poole is out as well. This means that
Troy Brown, yes receiver Troy Brown, will be lining up as the nickel
back. This obviously causes huge problems for several reasons.
The Colts often use three wide-outs on any given play forcing
other teams to line up in both nickel and dime packages. Thus
the more three receiver sets the Colts use, the more Troy Brown
must play defense. Therefore Brown will not be able to play in as
many offensive series. In what creates a strange twist, the Colts
offense may be their best defense. For each three receiver set
the Colts use on offense will have the effect of limiting the Pats
offensive weapons. The offense has never been such a good
defense.
This bizarre twist will lead the Colts to victory as they finally top
the Patriots’ hump and move one step closer to the Super Bowl.
Colts 31, Patriots 17
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
The hype entering this second AFC game is much less than Colts
v. Pats. Instead of ‘Vanderjerk’ and his predictions on the Pats,
we have rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who decided to
donate his game paycheck to the victims of last month’s Tsunami.
There is no hatred and no bad blood; just two great coaches
lining up two very good football teams on Saturday. Now lets
take a look at each team.
The Jets are coming off a very strange win over the San Diego
Chargers. They led late and had the game won but for a goal line
fourth down penalty. Then the Jets had the game lost in overtime
but for a bad-coaching decision by Marty Schottenheimer. In the
end, the Jets won, Pennington looked healthy specifically
throwing the deep ball, the defense played well and running
attack was steady with the rotation of Curtis Martin and Lamont
Jordan.
The Jets offense boasts NFL leading rusher Martin and accurate
quarterback Pennington. Pennington spent the second half of the
season battling an injury to his throwing shoulder, but looked
very healthy in the win against the Chargers. Pennington must
maintain his health and deep throwing ability to have any chance
against the Steelers. With speedster Santana Moss, Pennington
will have to seek Moss out early on deep patterns in hopes of
scoring first. If the Jets offense can score first, the combo rushing
of Martin and Jordan may just create enough confusion to keep
the Steelers’ defense on their heels.
On defense, the Jets are also riding high on momentum. They
held the high-powered Chargers’ offense to just 17 points
including what should have been a game ending goal line stand.
The defense also held all-NFL running back Ladanian Tomlinson to
just a 3 yard per carry. A similar showing will be necessary to
beat the Steelers.
The Jets pass rush led to Drew Brees being sacked twice and
forced one interception. Against the Steelers the Jets must enter
the backfield often and hit Roethlisberger early. The Jets need to
welcome the rookie quarterback to the postseason and show why
the Jets have been there three of the past four seasons.
The Steelers were the best team in football this year. They won
15 games and beat both the Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles in
back to back games when both were undefeated. Coach Bill
Cower, who has consistently won during his tenure, leads the
Steelers. The lone blemish on Cower’s resume is his inability to
get to and win a Super Bowl. Only once has Cower led his team
to the big dance where the Dallas Cowboys dismantled them.
This time around the Steelers are playing old school smash-mouth
football. They run the ball and then they run more. And they play
shutdown defense. More than anything else, this game plan has
led to Roethlisberger’s success.
On offense the Steelers boast a two-headed running back combo
of Jerome “the Bus” Bettis and Duce Staley. Together they
rushed for over 1700 yards. While most of the Steelers buzz has
been about the rookie his record setting 13-0 start and all-time
rookie record for passer rating, the Steelers are a running team.
And it will be the run that sets up the pass to downfield threats
Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress.
On defense all-NFL linebacker James Farrior leads the Steelers.
The defense finished first in the NFL and will surely cause havoc
for the Jets as they only allowed 258 yards gained per game. The
defense does not have a true weakness as they led the AFC in
rushing yards allowed, were third in passing yards allowed and
first in points scored. The sole weakness may be speed at the
cornerback position. However if the Steelers’ cornerbacks can
keep the Jets receivers on the inside where safety help is
available, the Jets will have trouble scoring.
Most believe that this game will come down to the rookie’s
nerves. Will Roethlisberger be able to handle the increased
pressure of the NFL playoffs? Roethlisberger has never played in
such a setting and even the biggest games in the regular season,
the victories over the Pats and Eagles, do not compare with the
playoffs. Yet the Steelers only won two games, and that is
arguable, by riding on the shoulders of Roethlisberger. The
Steelers run on offense and shutdown on defense.
The Jets slim chances of winning this game will come down to
scoring first. If the Jets can put two scores on the board before
the Steelers score, they will force Roethlisberger into a heavier
role than Cower would like. Problem is, teams only averaged two
scores against the Steelers’ defense and it is very unlikely that
they defense will give up two touchdowns early.
Steelers 17, Jets 6
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